风险主题短文及译文学英语

The Meaning of Risk 风险的内涵

What exactly is meant by the word "risk"? The word is certainly used frequently in everyday conversation and seems to be well understood by those using it.

To most people, risk implies some form of uncertainty about an outcome in a given situation. An event might occur and, if it does, the outcome is not favourable to us; it is not an outcome we look forward to. The word "risk" implies both doubt about the future, and the fact that the outcome could leave us in a worse position than we are in at the moment.

Writers, particularly in America, have produced a number of definitions of "risk".

Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence.

Risk is a combination of hazards.

Risk is unpredictability -- the tendency that actual results may differ from predicted results.

Risk is uncertainty of loss.

Risk is the possibility of loss.

Looking at the definitions there does seem to emerge some kind of common-thread running through each of them. Firstly, there is an underlying idea of uncertainty, what we have referred to as doubt about the future. Secondly, there is the implication that there are different levels or degrees of risk. Thirdly, there is the idea of a result having been brought about by one cause or causes.

If a child is playing in the middle of a busy road; if a workman is using a machine while he is unaware, that it is faulty and dangerous; if the pedestrians are unaware that a wall running alongside a pavement is a dangerous condition and about to collapse, what will happen to them? There is an element of risk and uncertainty in each of these situations. The child may escape free of injury, the machine may hold out until the workman has finished using it and the wall may not collapse and injure passersby. Alternatively, there could be serious injury in each case. Uncertainty can exist in the abstract, it is not dependent on being recognized as existing by those who may be most directly involved. Uncertainty is linked more to the event itself, rather than to any personal perception of the existence of uncertainty.

“风险”这个词的真正含义是什么?这个词在我们的日常会话中经常出现，它似乎被人们所理解。

对大多数人来说，风险指的是，在特定情况下某种结果的不确定性形式。某种事件可能会发生，如果发生，其结果对我们不利。它不是我们期望的结果。“风险”既包含着对未来的疑虑，又包含着发生的结果将使我们处于比现在更糟的境地。

许多学者，特别是美国的学者，他们对风险的概念下了一些定义：

风险是不幸事故发生的可能性。

风险是——切危险的综合体。

风险是一种无法预测的，其趋势是，实际后果可能不同于预测后果。

风险是损失的不确定性。

风险是损失的可能性。

综合以上定义，有一种共同的思路贯穿于每个定义之中，那就是我们已经提到过的对未来的疑虑。第二，定义意味着风险存在不同的水准和不同级别。第三，定义包含这样—个思想，即风险是由于某个原因或某些原因带来的一种结果。

如果一个小孩在繁华的道路中玩耍；如果一个工人正在使用机器而不知道机器有毛病或有危险；如果过往的行人不知道人行道旁的围墙处于危险状态并要倒塌，那么将会发生什么情况?每种情况都有风险和不确定性的因素，小孩有可能逃避伤害，机器有可能不会发生意外，围墙可能没有伤害过往行人。与此相反，也许每种情况都可能发生严重的伤亡事故。不确定性存在于抽象之中，它不依赖于那些有直接联系的人是否承认它的存在，与不确定性联系的主要是事件本身，而不是人们对不确定性存在的认识。

风险的分类

We now turn our attention to the classes into which risk can be placed. This is different from scrutinizing the actual idea of risk, we are now looking at the whole concept of risk and grouping together similar classes of risk. Of the many classes, we will look at three.

Financial and non-financial risks

A financial risk is one where the outcome can be measure() in monetary terms. This is easy to see in the case of material damage to property, theft of property or lost business profit following a fire. In cases of personal injury, it can also be possible to measure financial loss in terms of a court award of damages, or as a result of negotiation between lawyers and insurers. In any of these cases, the outcome of the risky situation can be measured financially.

There are other situations where this kind of measurement is not possible. Take the case of the choice of a new car, or the selection of an item from a restaurant menu. These could be construed as risky situations, not because the outcome will cause financial loss, but because the outcome could be uncomfortable or disliked in some other way. There may or may not be financial implications but in the main the outcome is not measurable financially but by other, more human, criteria.

Pure and speculative risks

Pure risks involve a loss or, at best, a break-even situation. The outcome can only be unfavourable to us, or leave us in the same position as we enjoyed before the event occurred. The risk of a motor accident, fire at a factory, theft of goods from a store, or injury at work are all pure risks with no element of gain:

The alternative to this is speculative risk, where there is the chance of gain. Investing money in share is a good example. The investment may result in a loss or possibly a break-even position, but the reason it was made was the prospect of gain.

Fundamental and particular risks

Fundamental risks are those which arise from causes outside tile control of any one individual or even a group of individuals. In addition, the effect of fundamental risks is felt by large numbers of people. This classification would include earthquakes, floods, famine, volcanoes and other natural "disasters". However it would not be accurate to limit fundamental risk to naturally occurring perils. Social change, political intervention and war are all capable of being interpreted as fundamental risks.

In contrast to this form of risk, which is impersonal in origin and widespread in effect, we have particular risks. Particular risks are much more personal both in their cause and effect. This would include many of the risks we have already mentioned such as fire, theft, work related injury and motor accidents. All of these risks arise from individual causes and 'affect individuals in their consequences.

我们现在来看风险可以分成哪些类别。这跟审查风险的真实含义不同，我们现在看到的是风险的整体概念并且是把相似的风险汇集起来。在这许多种类中，我们将看到三类。

财务风险和非财务风险

财务风险是指后果可以用金钱来估量的风险。如果财产遭到实质上的损坏或是遭到偷窃，或是火灾后商业利益遭到损失，那是很容易看到的。如果个人受伤，也可能用金钱来估量法定的受伤赔偿，或者由律师和保险人进行协商得出一个赔偿金额。无论是哪种情况，风险的后果都可以用金钱来估量。

还有其他一些情况是不可能进行这种估量的。比如选择一辆新车，或者从餐馆菜单中点菜。这些可以被认为是有风险的情况，不是因为其后果会导致经济损失，而是因为其后果可能在其他方面让人觉得不舒服或者是不喜欢。这可能会牵涉到声钱，也可能不会，但总的来说，后果不是用金钱而是用其他更具人情味的标准来估量的。

纯粹风险和投机风险

纯粹风险包括损失或者充其量是收支相抵的情况。其后果只能对我们不利，或者让我们处于跟事件发生前一样的情况下。车祸、工厂的火灾、商场货物的偷窃、或者是工伤，这些风险都是不能获利的纯粹风险。

与之相对的是投机风险，这种风险是有可能获利的。股票投资就是一个很好的例子。这种投资可能有损失或者可能收支相抵，但是投资的目的是为了获利。

基本风险和特定风险

基本风险是指那些由超出个人甚至是群体的原因引起的风险。而且很多人都能感受到基本风险的影响。这类风险包括地震、水灾、饥荒、火山及其他自然灾难。然而，把基本风险局限于自然危险是不准确的。社会变革，政治干涉和战争都可以被认为是基本风险。

与这种非人为而有广泛影响的风险相对的，我们说是特定风险。特定风险在起因和影响两方面都更加与人相关。它包括我们已经提到过的很多风险，例如火灾、偷窃、工伤以及车祸。所以这些风险由个人引起并且最终影响到个人。

风险的管理

Over the past few decades we have seen a steady movement towards a more managerial response to these forms of risk. What has emerged is the discipline of risk management. We could define risk management as "the identification, analysis and economic control of those risks which can threaten the assets or earning capacity of an enterprise."

This definition is valuable because it highlights the structured approach which is called for if risks to the business environment are to be managed.

The three-fold nature of risk management is highlighted in the definition. Risks must be identified before they can be measured, and only after their impact has been evaluated can we decide on the most effective method of control.

However we decide to control risk, it must be "economic." There is no point in spending ten pounds to control a risk which can only ever cost five pounds. There will always be a point where spending on risk control has stop.

The definition mentions the assets and earning capacity of an organization. These assets can be physical or human; they are both important and risk management must be seen to have a part to play in both. However, risks do not only strike at assets directly and for this reason the definition also mentions the earning capacity of an enterprise.

Note that the definition uses the word "enterprise" rather than a more restrictive word such as "company" or "manufacturer". The principles of risk management are just as applicable in the service sectors as they are in the manufacturing sectors, and are of equal importance in the public and private sectors of the economy.

When considering risk identification we must remember to take the broad view. We are not solely concerned with what can be insured, or even with what can be controlled. We start from the very basic question, "How can the assets or earning capacity of the enterprise be threatened?" Starting from this position does not place any constraint on us as to what kind of risks we are looking for. We must begin the task in an unblinking manner and identify the whole host of ways in which an organization may be impeded from achieving its objectives.

We could say that there are at least two essentials if risk identification is to be effective.

Firstly, risk identification must be importantly recognized within an enterprise. When this is case, it is often marked down as a task within the job descriptions of a particular manager.

Secondly, the person responsible for risk identification must be armed with the relevant "tools of the trade" and must make use of them.

Once it has been identified that there is a risk, steps have to be taken to measure the potential impact of that risk on the organization. In a practical sense the measurement of risk starts with the gathering of information, followed by tile analysis of past experience, and then moves on to see what the data tells us about the level of frequency and severity of the risk to which an organization is exposed.

We can split the whole area of risk control into physical and financial control.

Physical risk control

We are concerned here with physical steps which can be taken in order to control risk. The first step must be to reduce the level of the risk as far as possible. This means both the chance that something will happen and the severity of the incident, should it occur. There are at least two ways in which we could understand risk reduction.

Pre-loss risk reduction

It is possible to take steps before any event has occurred to minimize risk. The essence of pre-loss reduction of risk is that the effects of the loss are anticipated and steps are taken to ensure that they are kept to a minimum.

Wearing a car seatbelt is a good, personal example. There has been no loss, but the possible effect of a loss has been anticipated and the pre-loss risk reduction step of wearing a belt has been taken.

The use of safety guards on machinery, is an industrial equivalent. There has been no injury, but steps have been taken to reduce the risk of injury.

Post-loss risk control

This form of risk control imagines that the risk has occurred and takes steps to minimize the effect of the loss. The use of automatic fire sprinkler systems fits into this category. Once the fire has started, the sprinklers operate to reduce the impact of the fire.

Financial risk control

We now turn our attention to financial mechanisms which can be used to control risk. These can be divided into two categories.

Risk retention

Once the risk has been identified and controlled in some physical way, it will be necessary to consider how the effects are to be financed, should the worst happen.

In certain situations, it may be wise to retain the risk rather than to seek another form of protection, such as insurance. We have already mentioned the problems associated with insuring high frequency, low severity events and they certainly fall into the self-retention category. The cost of these events could be paid for out of current income and passed on to the customer via the price of the product (or service) , which is offered by the organization. Alternatively a fund could be established, out of which the losses are to be paid.

Risk transfer

Insurance is a risk transfer mechanism by which an organization can exchange its uncertainty for certainty. The uncertainty experienced would include whether a loss will occur, when it will take place, how severe it will be and how frequent there might be in a year. This uncertainty makes it very difficult to budget and so the organization seeks ways of controlling the financial effect of the risk. Insurance offers the opportunity to exchange this uncertain loss for a certain loss: the insurance premium. The organization agrees to pay a fixed premium, in return, the insurance company agrees to meet any losses which fall within the terms of the policy. This is a risk transfer mechanism which is of immense value not only to industry, but also to individuals.

在过去的几十年我们已经看到对于这些风险的管理方法越来越趋于稳定。出现了风险管理的.原则。我们可以把风险管理定义为“对那些会威胁企业资产和收入能力的风险进行识别、分析和经济控制”。

这个定义十分有用，因为它强调，如果商业环境出现风险而必须进行管理时，要用系统的方法来管理。

定义中已经强调了风险管理的三方面。风险在估计前必须先识别，只有估计出它们的影响后，我们才能决定出控制它们的最有效的方法。

不管我们决定怎样控制风险，都必须是“经济”的。花费10英磅去控制只需花费5英磅的风险是没有意义的，停止控制风险才有意义。

定义涉及一个组织机构的资产和收人能力。这些资产可以是物质的也可以是人力的，两者都很重要。而且必须看到，风险管理对这两者都起作用。然而风险不只是直接影响资产，为此定义中也涉及了企业的收人能力。

要注意定义中用的词是“企业”而不是用其他的像“公司”或“制造商”这样限制性的词。风险管理的原则在服务部门的应用跟在制造部门的应用是一样的，并且在社会公共领域和私人领域中同等重要。

就风险识别而言，我们必须记得要从宏观上来看。我们不仅只是关心什么能被保，或者什么能被控制。我们从最基本的问题开始，“企业的资产和收入能力怎样受到威胁?”从这点出发丝毫不会限制我们要寻找什么样的风险。我们必须毫不隐瞒地开始这项任务，积极识别妨碍一个企业达到其目标的所有方面。

我们可以说，要有效进行风险识别至少有两个要点。

第一，必须认识到风险的识别在企业内部是很重要的。这时，这一点经常被纳入某个经理的工作范畴。

第二，负责风险识别的人员必须配备有关的“技术工具”，并且必须利用这些工具。

一旦识别有风险，就要采取措施估计风险对企业的潜在影响。风险估计的实际做法是首先要收集信息，然后分析以往经验，再通过数据掌握一个企业所暴露出来的风险频率和(或)幅度。

我们可以把整个风险领域划分为物质上的风险控制和财务上的风险控制。

物质上的风险控制

这里我们关心的是可以采取什么样的物质措施控制风险。第一步必须是尽可能地减轻风险的程度。一旦事件发生，就意味着事情发生的可能性以及事情的严重程度。我们可以看到至少有两种方法可以减少风险。

防损

在事件发生前采取措施把风险降到最低是可能的。防损就是预测损失并采取措施以保证风险保持在最低。

对此，开车系安全带就是一个很好的个人的例子。这就是进行了风险预测，然后采取了系安全带的防灾举措。预测了可能发生的损失，系上安全带就是采取了损失控制措施。

机器上运用安全防御措施也是一样。没有发生伤亡，但还是会采取措施减少伤亡危险。

减损

这种风险控制则是想象风险已经发生，然后要采取措施把损失造成的影响降到最低。火灾自动洒水系统的运用就属于这种风险控制。—旦火灾开始，洒水系统就会启动以减少火灾造成的影响。

财务上的风险控制

我们现在要注意看的是控制风险的财务方法。它可以分为两类。

风险自留

一旦风险被确认并且用某种自然方法进行了控制，就有必要考虑如果发生最糟的情形将要怎样用金钱计算出其产生的影响。

在某些情况下，保留风险而不去寻求另一种保护，例如保险，是明智的。我们已经提到过一些跟高频率低幅度的事件有关的风险，它们肯定归入自我保留一类。这些事件的费用可以从现有收入中扣除，并且以企业提供的产品(或服务)的价钱传递给消费者。或者可以建立一笔基金，从中支出损失。

风险转移

保险是一种风险转移过程。通过它，一个企业可以把它的不确定性转换成确定性。常有的不确定性包括：损失是否会发生，什么时候会发生，会有多严重，一个时期内会发生多少次。这种不确定性使得预算变得非常困难，所以企业找寻控制财务支出的方法以及把不确定损失转换成确定损失的机会，即保险保费。企业同意支付一定数额的保费，反过来，保险公司同意承担保单条款范围内的任何损失。这是一个风险转移过程，不只是对某行业而且对个人都很有利。